/tnt/ - Tournaments & Events

Okay, who is clearly NOT winning their respective tournament?

>>218486
Recette, we saw with Eggman recently how excessive Hexfag support will get you spited.

>>218486
Recettey might avoid 8th but no way she wins. Highly doubtful Tron can win too but maybe she gets past the first round.
I also don't see Shadow or Batter winning King.

Eggman is gonna skip this tournament. How do you feel about this

Most to least likely to win imo
Curly > Midna > Samus > Madotsuki > Reimu > Tron > Recette
Armstrong > Dante > Scout > Grimm > Garland > Batter > Shadow

>>218486
>Reimu Hakurei
There's an at least notable share of anons who either don't care at all or outright dislike 2hu. Add on greater distaste toward Touhou threads on /v/ in recent memory and the pedo spammer incident, and Reimu's prospects of winning do seem troubled. A lot who like Reimu really like her, and she could win a match depending on her bracket. Still seems nigh impossible she outright wins.
>Tron Bonne
The concerns over her win being decided by Etna spite with how close it ended up isn't going away that fast. Even beyond that, she clearly didn't light up the threads with her victory. A fine enough victor on her own, but not one that is going to top most lists. Probably not surviving a round unless her opponent chokes, though she might avoid 7th or 8th depending on the other R1 losers and whoever is joining the rest next year.

Samus and Curly have really good shots at winning outright. Midna and Mado could both pull through. Recette is unlikely to take it, but I can see it happening in a select few scenarios. More likely she chokes in R2 or R3 if she doesn't lose early on, but I'm slightly hesitant to echo that she's basically out of question. I can't see Reimu or Tron winning at all, much as it pains me on the former.

>Jack Garland
A lot of people really do still respect Jack, but there's clearly a notable enough share of anons who don't feel warm toward his win. It's slightly worse on here, but even in the recent afterparty threads several ranked him lower or around the bottom. The other issue is his game is still fairly niche. Clearly it has a cult following on /v/ with a lot genuinely praising it, but with years going on the odds of him losing simply off less exposure does grow.
>Shadow the Hedgehog
Pretty obvious why he won't win. His whole win has been considered an odd one out, and he retains a very polarizing reception as a winner to this day. There also just aren't enough who would put him at the top for him to actually take it. Odds are he's not making it out of R1, and basically impossible he makes it to finals. He might even be the top contender to take 8th place, though that might be jumping the gun.

Dante is the most likely winner. Armstrong and Scout are obvious strong alternatives, while Batter and Grimm could regain past momentum to push through the bracket. Probably less likely in Grimm's case cause of the Grimmcord incident and being the later winner between the two, but Black Souls is also quite /v/core.

Reimu, Tron, Jack, and Shadow are the only four I'd completely count out. Recette is right behind them, but more around very low percent to win than around 0%.

it'll be REALLY funny if all these predictions are wrong because they go with randomized instead of seeded

>>218486
Garland for being the planned discordfag pick. Even with the accusations aside, at least I see Black Souls being talked about in the catalog, that makes Grimm having at least presence outside tournament stuff. His matchup with Eggman had fuel and did not end up being a one-time joke like Garland and Jack Off.

>>218505
I did consider that possibility when making my analysis at >>218494. It might give anyone a chance to leave round one depending how the bracket turned out, but winning all three rounds is a whole other matter. Just can't see the four characters I singled out winning regardless of the bracket. Closest I could see is Reimu making finals with a real lucky bracket, but odds are still that the other finalist beats her regardless.

>Everyone expects Recette to get sent to the cave of despair
>It actually ends up being Reimu because of the spammer and anti-Touhou sentiment, while Recette pulls a Spinel and just barely weasels her way into 7th in the 5th-8th rankings
Comedic or tragic?

>>218491
Nah
Dante>scout=armstrong>jack>the rest

>Reimu becomes a finalist
>the hosts can't use any OC for the finale threads